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Evaluating the effectiveness of modern forecasting models in predicting commodity futures prices in volatile economic times
Vancsura, László; Tatay, Tibor; Bareith, Tibor - In: Risks : open access journal 11 (2023) 2, pp. 1-16
The paper seeks to answer the question of how price forecasting can contribute to which techniques gives the most accurate results in the futures commodity market. A total of two families of models (decision trees, artificial intelligence) were used to produce estimates for 2018 and 2022 for 21-...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014233184
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Oil commodity returns and macroeconomic factors : a time-varying approach
Schalck, Christophe; Chenavaz, Régis - In: Research in international business and finance 33 (2015), pp. 290-303
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011325859
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Futures price volatility in commodities markets : the role of short term vs long term speculation
Manera, Matteo; Nicolini, Marcella; Vignati, Ilaria - 2013
This paper evaluates how different types of speculation affect the volatility of commodities' futures prices. We adopt …-2010 analyzed at weekly frequency. Using GARCH models we find that speculation significantly affects volatility of returns: short … term speculation has a positive and significant impact on volatility, while long term speculation generally has a negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009756298
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Time-variations in commodity price jumps
Diewald, Laszlo; Prokopczuk, Marcel; Wese Simen, Chardin - In: Journal of empirical finance 31 (2015), pp. 72-84
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489343
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Bootstrap score tests for fractional integration in heteroskedastic ARFIMA models, with an application to price dynamics in commodity spot and futures markets
Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; … - In: Journal of econometrics 187 (2015) 2, pp. 557-579
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499761
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Time-Variations in Commodity Price Jumps
Diewald, Laszlo - 2019
, i.e. exhibits seasonality. We propose a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model to capture this seasonal variation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905261
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On the dynamic dependence between equity markets, commodity futures and economic uncertainty indexes
Berger, Theo; Uddin, Mohammed Gazi Salah - In: Energy economics 56 (2016), pp. 374-383
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011664267
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Do VaR exceptions have seasonality? : an empirical study on Indian commodity spot prices
Gupta, Apoorv; Rajib, Prabina - In: IIMB management review 30 (2018) 4, pp. 369-384
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012042010
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Forecasting stock market volatility : the role of technical variables
Liu, Li; Pan, Zhiyuan - In: Economic modelling 84 (2020), pp. 55-65
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012210290
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Forecasting low-frequency macroeconomic events with high-frequency data
Galvão, Ana Beatriz C.; Owyang, Michael T. - In: Journal of applied econometrics 37 (2022) 7, pp. 1314-1333
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013473971