We present an efficient technique for the study of quasi-periodic oscillations in noisy, non-stationary signals, which allows the assessment of system dynamics despite phase resetting and noise. It is based on the definition of anchor points in the signal (in the simplest case increases or...

The dynamic relationships among trade, income and the environment for developed and developing countries are examined using a cointegration analysis. Results suggest that trade and income growth tend to increase environmental quality in developed countries, whereas they have detrimental effects...

In this paper, I analyze the business cycle properties of remittances and output series for three pairs of countries: United States-Mexico, United States-El Salvador, and Germany-Turkey. Using an unobserved components state-space model (via the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition), I decompose the...

The development in the working of markets has been an important topic in economic history for decades. The volatility of market prices is often used as an indicator of market efficiency in the broadest sense. Yet, the way in which volatility is estimated often makes it difficult to compare price...

In this study, authors Joseph Gagnon, Matthew Raskin, Julie Remache and Brian Sack review the Federal Reserve’s experience with implementing the LSAPs between late 2008 and March 2010. They explain that the target fed funds rate was set as low as possible in December 2008. Thus, to further...

This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West’s (2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of West’s writing. We then focus on recent developments, including advancements in the evaluation of...

Smooth-transition autoregressive (STAR) models have proven to be worthy competitors of Markov-switching models of regime shifts, but the assumption of a time-invariant threshold level does not seem realistic and it holds back this class of models from reaching their potential usefulness. Indeed,...

This paper attempts to realistically model the underlying exchange rate data generating process. We ask what types of diffusion or jump features are most appropriate. The most plausible model for 1-minute data features Brownian motion and Poisson jumps but not infinite activity jumps. Modeling...