Gu, Xinhua; Wu, Jie; Guo, Haizhen; Li, Guoqiang - 2022
This paper uses a Markov switching model (MSM) to decompose Macao’s tourism cycle into high and low growth states (HGS, LGS) for the period of 2005Q2–2017Q2. The likelihood of the cycle maintaining HGS is 93% but the risk of staying in LGS is 80%. The Macao cycle is favorably asymmetric,...
