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Recessions and instable estimates of potential output

Dovern, Jonas; Zuber, Christopher - 2017

This paper analyzes how the OECD revises potential output (PO) estimates after recessions. We show that downward revisions are substantial and mostly driven by supply shocks while PO estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. In addition, revisions are partly caused by avoidable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011798221

Trend extraction from time series with structural breaks and missing observations

Schlicht, Ekkehart - 2008

Trend extraction from time series is often performed by using the filter proposed by Leser (1961), also known as the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951479

Design trend forecasting by combining conceptual analysis and semantic projections : new tools for open innovation

Manetti, Alessandro; Ferrer-Sapena, Antonia; Sánchez … - In: Journal of open innovation : technology, market, and … 7 (2021) 1/92, pp. 1-26

In this paper, we describe a new trend analysis and forecasting method (Deflexor), which is intended to help inform … information, our model allows for the creation of specific tools for trend analysis in particular fields that are adaptable to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012491187

Report of the ECCG on monitoring indicators of the consumer movement

European Consumer Consultative Group (ECCG)

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009641034

Assessment of Trends in Extreme Precipitation Events: A Case Study in Piedmont (North-West Italy)

Saidi, Helmi; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia; … - In: Water Resources Management 29 (2015) 1, pp. 63-80

parametric and non-parametric tests. Mostly, we cannot reject the trend stationarity hypothesis. There is no uniform trend on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011151788

Analyses of Drought Events in Calabria (Southern Italy) Using Standardized Precipitation Index

Buttafuoco, G.; Caloiero, T.; Coscarelli, R. - In: Water Resources Management 29 (2015) 2, pp. 557-573

December 2001 and April 2002. The trend analysis showed a reduction in the SPI values that is a tendency towards drier … conditions, although the running trend approach, carried out only for the long-term SPI, revealed that this tendency is not …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011151794

Trend-cycle decomposition for Peruvian GDP: application of an alternative method

Guillén, Ángel; Rodríguez, Gabriel - In: Latin American Economic Review 23 (2014) 1, pp. 1-44

decomposition of the GDP in its trend and cycle components, which overcomes the identification problems of models of unobserved … this analysis, we choose the UC-CN model, which presents a mixture of normals in the disturbances of the trend and cycle … component of output. The obtained trend clearly reflects the structural change undergone in the early 1990s. After a steep …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011151934

A Critical Analysis of Climate Change Factors and its Projected Future Values in Delta State, Nigeria

Emaziye, P.O.; Okoh, R. N.; Ike, P. C. - In: Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development 02 (2012) 02

descriptive statistics, trend analysis and growth model. The study reveals that there were increasing trends of temperature values … and decreasing rainfall values in the state. But their projected future values witnessed an increasing trend. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011200693

Long-Run Growth Uncertainty

Kuang, Pei; Mitra, Kaushik - Department of Economics, University of Birmingham

A model of business cycles in which households do not have knowledge of the long-run growth of endogenous variables and continually learn about this growth is presented. The model features comovement and mutual reinforcement of households' growth expectations and market outcomes and suggests a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011203023

How Are Shocks to Trend and Cycle Correlated? A Simple Methodology for Unidentified Unobserved Components Models

Nagakura, Daisuke - Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University - 2011

In this paper, we propose a simple methodology for investigating how shocks to trend and cycle are correlated in … changing the identification restriction results in different trend and cycle estimates. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009020175