This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition...

This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition...

We characterize a country's exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOME PREVIOUS WORK -- III. OVERVIEW OF OUR METHODOLOGY -- IV. BRAZIL, 2000-05 -- V. MEXICO -- VI. TURKEY -- VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- APPENDIX ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES -- REFERENCES.

We characterize a country''s exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such...