We investigate the relative performance of a wide array of Value at Risk (VaR) models with the daily returns of Turkish (XU100) and Croatian (CROBEX) stock index prior to and during the ongoing financial crisis. In addition to widely used VaR models, we also study the behaviour of conditional...

The 2000-2001 Turkish crisis has often been analysed in the literature without a solid econometric basis. This article presents a linear regression model as well as a logit model that enable us to measure the extent to which economic fundamentals and banking variables can account for the outcome...

Non-performing loans (NPLs) rate is one of the main risks in commercial banks and is also a critical measure of the bank's financial performance and stability. Banks meet the growth rate of NPLs when the debtors are not able to meet their financial obligations in terms of repayment of loans....

The impact of allowing banks to calculate their capital requirement based on their internal VaR models, and the impact of regulation changes on banks in transitional countries has not been well studied. This paper examines whether VaR models that are created and suited for developed markets...

This paper examines persistence in Turkish inflation rates using data from consumer and wholesale price indices. The inflationary process in Turkey is believed to be highly inertial, which should lead to strongly persistent inflation series. Persistence of seventy-five inflation series at...

In the last fifteen years four crisis episodes occurred in the Turkish economy in April 1994, February 2001, May 2006 and October 2008. These local crises with minor effects on other countries led nevertheless to severe economic and social consequences in terms of increasing domestic interest...

Different severe financial crises episodes occurred in the Turkish economy in the last two decades. These crises led to severe economic and social consequences for Turkey in terms of increasing interest rates, large reserves losses, considerable currency depreciations, high output losses and...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) data in Turkey are released with a very long delay compared with other economies, between 10 and 13 weeks after the end of the reference quarter. To infer the current state of the economy, policy makers, media, and market practitioners examine data that are more...

Having forecast of real estate sales done correctly is very important for balancing supply and demand in the housing market. However, it is very difficult for housing companies or real estate professionals to determine how many houses they will sell next year. Although this does not mean that a...

This paper analyses inflation forecasting power of artificial neural networks with alternative univariate time series models for Turkey. The forecasting accuracy of the models is compared in terms of both static and dynamic forecasts for the period between 1982:1 and 2009:12. We find that at...