We identify the cyclical turning points of 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (i) Cyclical phase shifts are highly concentrated around the aggregate turning points; (ii) In contrast to the conventional notion of a sudden stop and slow recovery, troughs are...

We will consider the use of block elimination for the calculation of generalized turning and bifurcation points for two point B.V.P.'s. It will be shown that such algorithm will reduce the amount of work required in terms of LU-factorizations to minimal. Since the discretization error of the...

This paper employs a Markov Switching Panel model to measure business cycle turning points in Japan. This Markov Switching Panel model is simple and can easily be estimated following Hamilton's [J.D. Hamilton, A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business...

We document information rigidity in forecasts of real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We also investigate: (i) whether rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; (ii) whether rigidities are lower around turning points...

The idea of a generation of young adults “boomeranging” back to the parental home has gained widespread currency in the British popular press. However, there is little empirical research identifying either increasing rates of returning home or the factors associated with this trend. This...

In this paper, we establish a turning point chronology for the Chinese provincial deviation cycles during the period 1989–2009. The existing work has exclusively focused on the national business cycle.

In this study, 19 young adults who were removed from their biological parents as children were interviewed about turning points in their lives that led to them to complete a post-secondary educational program or achieve at least junior standing in a four-year institution. The results suggest...