Our paper reports on Monte Carlo experiments using Evans's data-generating process to gauge the performance of these two kinds of regime-switching tests.

Several recent papers have presented evidence from foreign exchange and other markets suggesting that the log of excess returns can be characterized as first-order integrated processes (I(1)). This contrasts sharply with the "conventional" wisdom that log prices are integrated of order one I(1)...

We develop in this paper simple geometrical methods to study local indeterminacy, bifurcations and stochastic (sunspot) equilibria near a steady state, in nonlinear two dimensional economic models. We present in particular a simple geometrical characterization of the support of stochastic...

Tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity against the unit root alternative play an increasingly important role in empirical work in macroeconomics and in international finance. We show that the use of conventional asymptotic critical values for stationarity tests may cause extreme size...

This paper takes a computationnaly simple LS approach to develop a more efficient estimation procedure, which we call Residual Augmented Least Square (RALS), than OLS when the errors are not normally distributed. The efficiency gain is from manipulating the higher moment conditions implied by...

The global linear trend with autocorrelated disturbances is a surprising omission from the M1 competition. This approach to forecasting is therefore evaluated using the 51 non-seasonal series from the competition. It is contrasted with a fully optimized version of Holts trend corrected...

Recent tests using long data series find evidence in favor of long-run PPP (by rejecting either the null hypothesis of unit roots in real exchange rates and relative prices.)

This paper tests the existence of a risk premium in the one-month and three-month forward exchange markets.

We present an empirical analysis of a long run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for thirteen Asian-Pacific countries using cointegration techniques.