This paper argues that incorporating information about the financial cycle is important to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. Conceptually, identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive. Potential output is seen as sustainable; yet experience...

From 2000-2006 U.S. house prices and mortgage credit grew while the relative cost of mortgage credit fell - particularly for privately securitized mortgages - suggesting a credit supply expansion. This paper explores two (credit supply) shocks: an increased inow of global savings into the United...