Belke, Ansgar; Goemans, Pascal - 2019 - First draft: December 18, 2018, this draft: September 8, 2019
We investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the level of uncertainty. Using postwar US data and a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) model, we find that fiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times but is contractionary during...
