We empirically investigate whether the relationship between interest rates and public deficits/debt may be nonlinear for the U.S. Using threshold estimation, we find evidence of level-dependent effects on interest rates, implying a significant effect of projected deficits and debt in the U.S....

Threshold models have been widely used to analyze interdependent behavior, yet empirical research identifying people's thresholds is nonexistent. We introduce an incentivized method for eliciting thresholds and use it to study support for affirmative action in a large, stratified sample of the...

This paper uses a structurally estimated macroeconometric model, denoted the MC model, to evaluate inflation targeting in the United States. Various interest rate rules are tried with differing weights on inflation and output, and various optimal control problems are solved using differing...

"The authors use a dynamic factor model estimated via Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's house price movements from state- or region-specific shocks, estimated on quarterly state-level data from...

We study the implications of regional heterogeneity within a currency union for monetary policy. We ask, first, does monetary policy mitigate or exacerbate ex-post regional dispersion over the business cycle? And second, does ex-ante regional heterogeneity increase or dampen the aggregate...

We investigate the role of business dynamism in the transmission of monetary policy by exploitingthe variation in firm demographics across U.S. states. Using local projections, we find that a larger fraction of young firms significantly mutes the effects of monetary policy on the labor market...

"Financial crisis" is sometimes regarded as synonymous with "economic crisis", but this is an oversimplification and risks missing the feedback loops between the financial and real economies. In this paper, the role of money is revisited in the context of distinguishing the real economy from the...