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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013259668
We study how total factor productivity (TFP), energy prices, and the Great Moderation are linked. First we estimate a … negatively affected productivity. This spillover has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a dynamic … stochastic general equilibrium model, the disappearance of this energy-productivity spillover generates the significantly lower …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292361
variance of its components, which is then applied to measure the relative contributions of productivity, hours per worker, and … employment to cyclical output growth across a panel of countries. Measured productivity contributes more to the cycle in Europe …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274432
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897741
During the past thirty-five years, energy use as a fraction of output has dropped significantly at both the household and the firm levels. Therefore, we investigate a dynamic stochastic generalized equilibrium model economy's response to an energy price hike for different firm and household...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292312
We show diverse beliefs is an important propagation mechanism of fluctuations, money non neutrality and efficacy of monetary policy. Since expectations affect demand, our theory shows economic fluctuations are mostly driven by varying demand not supply shocks. Using a competitive model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298249
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010303756
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390646
This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390656
Cyclically adjusted budget balance (CAB) is a widely cited and widely used concept in the evaluation of fiscal situations. The key idea behind it involves the identification of potential levels of economic variables. There are two recently used methods: the aggregate approach and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322488