Showing 1 - 10 of 1,447
The last 20 years have been marked by a sharp rise in international demand for U.S. reserve assets, or safe stores-of-value. We argue that these trends in international capital flows are likely to be a boon for some (by a lot) but a bane for others (by less). Conversely, a sell-off of foreign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066874
The goal of this paper is to analyze predictability of future asset returns in the context of model uncertainty. Using data for the euro area, the US and the UK, we show that one can improve the forecasts of stock returns using a model averaging approach, and there is a large amount of model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078196
We integrate the housing market and the labor market in a dynamic general equilibrium model with credit and search frictions. The model is confronted with the U.S. macroeconomic time series. Our estimated model can account for two prominent facts observed in the data. First, the land price and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397671
From 2000-2006 U.S. house prices and mortgage credit grew while the relative cost of mortgage credit fell - particularly for privately securitized mortgages - suggesting a credit supply expansion. This paper explores two (credit supply) shocks: an increased inow of global savings into the United...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012659990
This paper examines the relationship between aggregate consumer spending and credit availability in the United States. The author finds that consumer spending falls (rises) in response to a reduction (increase) in credit availability. Moreover, she provides a formal assessment of the possibility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279912
This paper quantifies how the welfare costs of the U.S. Great Recession are distributed across borrowing and saving U.S. households. For this purpose, we use a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model of housing and household debt with shocks to aggregate income and shocks to the financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007497
The authors construct a quantitative equilibrium model of the housing sector that accounts for the homeownership rate, the average foreclosure rate, and the distribution of home-equity ratios across homeowners prior to the recent boom and bust in the housing market. They analyze the key...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037736
This paper examines the relationship between aggregate consumer spending and credit availability in the United States. The author finds that consumer spending falls (rises) in response to a reduction (increase) in credit availability. Moreover, she provides a formal assessment of the possibility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003933295
We argue that positive comovements between land prices and business investment are a driving force behind the broad impact of land-price dynamics on the macroeconomy. We develop an economic mechanism that captures the comovements by incorporating two key features into a DSGE model: we introduce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130631
This paper argues that the usual framing of discussions of money, monetary policy, and fiscal policy plays into the hands of conservatives.That framing is also largely consistent with the conventional view of the economy and of society more generally. To put it the way that economists usually...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009665525