In response to questions about the relative importance of different types of capital flow for international competitiveness, we develop a structural vector auto-regressive model of the real exchange rate and international capital flows. We reveal that innovations to speculative sentiment cause...

When nontraded goods prices are accounted for consistently and genuine stock data on bilateral foreign asset holdings is employed, a modified sticky-price exchange rate model by far outperforms the benchmark random walk-model in empirically forecasting the D-mark/dollar parity out of sample....

In this paper we have applied two approaches to the study of the dollar real exchange rate in relation with the Euro-area currencies. First, using dynamic panel techniques, we estimate an error correction model for the dollar real exchange rate versus seven developed countries, four of them...

We analyze the global imbalances and the required adjustments for rebalancing in current accounts and real exchange rates. We set up a two-country two-sector model for the US-China with two asymmetries. First, we assume that the size of China initially is one third of the US but its size becomes...

We test for mean reversion in real exchange rates using a recently developed unit root test for non-normal processes based on quantile autoregression inference in semi-parametric and non-parametric settings. The quantile regression approach allows us to directly capture the impact of different...

How is it possible that exchange rates move in the long run towards fundamentals, while professionals form consistently irrational exchange rate expectations? We look at this puzzle from a different perspective by analyzing investor sentiment in the US-dollar market. First, long-horizon...

Although the literature on purchasing power parity (PPP) is rich in controversy, the relative contribution of prices and nominal exchange rates to real exchange rate movements which restore PPP disequilibria has rarely been put under any close scrutiny. Using monthly data from 1973:01 to 2009:12...

We follow the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach by Clark and MacDonald (1998) to derive equilibrium real effective exchange rates and currency misalignments for the US and its 16 major trading partners. We apply cointegration and panel cointegration techniques to derive fully...

The behavior of the real exchange rate, measuring movements in the relative consumer price indexes between countries, remains a prominent puzzle in international macroeconomics. Two key theories of the real exchange rate differ in the role played by goods not traded internationally. On one hand,...