Unemployment is low and inflation is falling, but consumer sentiment remains depressed. This has confounded economists … official inflation are strongly correlated with borrowing costs and consumer credit supply. Concerns over borrowing costs … alternative measures of inflation that include borrowing costs and can account for almost three quarters of the gap in US consumer …

small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short … evaluation of predictive accuracy, we subject all structures to a mutual validation using parametric bootstrapping. Ultimately …

last two years, can well be explained. Alongside the more traditional macroeconomic determinants like core inflation … model in different forecasting exercises. -- bond yields ; interest rates ; cointegration ; inflation ; forecasting …

economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged … inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history …

Over the last two centuries, the cross-spectral coherence between either narrow or broad money growth and inflation at … other countries, thus implying that the fraction of inflation’s long-run variation explained by long-run money growth has … correspondence with the inflationary outbursts associated with World War I and the Great Inflation–but not World War II …

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their … inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared … by many components of the CPI basket. In a comparative analysis of the forecasting power of the different inflation …

A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on inflation. However …

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their … inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared … by many components of the CPI basket. In a comparative analysis of the forecasting power of the different inflation …