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GARCH model. The GDFM, applied to a large number of series, captures the multivariate information and disentangles the … a GARCH.We compare GDFM+GARCH and standard GARCH performance on two samples up to 171 series, providing one …-step-ahead volatility predictions of returns. The GDFM+GARCH model outperforms the standard GARCH in most cases. These results are robust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328627
employed in a bivariate GARCH model, where the joint distribution of the disturbances is split into its marginals and its …-dependent distribution. -- value-at-risk ; copula ; non-normal bivariate GARCH ; asymmetric dependence ; profile likelihood-ratio test …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009725481
Renditeverteilung existieren und sich überwiegend auch ein Leverage-Effekt identifizieren lässt. Durch eine ARMA-GARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299182
Volatility (SV) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models which are both extended to include … outperforms the GARCH model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324972
Estimation of GARCH models can be simplified by augmenting quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation with variance … volatility equation and corresponding value-at-risk predictions. We find that most GARCH coefficients and associated predictions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410634
, Hong Kong and Taiwan), Japan and US. The originality of the paper is the use of STAR-GARCH models, instead of standard … correlation-cointegration techniques. For each country in the Pacific Basin region, we find statistically adequate STAR-GARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011325074
We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326053
We propose a theoretical framework for assessing whether a forecast model estimated over one period can provide good forecasts over a subsequent period. We formalize this idea by defining a forecast breakdown as a situation in which the out-of-sample performance of the model, judged by some loss...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604684
Measuring and modeling financial volatility is the key to derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management.The recent availability of high-frequency data allows for refined methods in this field.In particular, more precise measures for the daily or lower frequency volatility can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274148
The classical approach to testing for structural change employs retrospective tests using a historical data set of a given length. Here we consider a wide array of fluctuation-type tests in a monitoring situation – given a history period for which a regression relationship is known to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316441