question is whether such rules-of-thumb should draw on policymakers' forecasts of key variables such as inflation and …

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US-$ rate. The results … indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by profes-sional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational … expectations hy-pothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to …

monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets … obvious advantage of financial data in forecasting oil prices is their availability in real time on a daily or weekly basis …

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the € /US-$ rate. The results … indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational … expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to …