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A large part of the current debate on US stock price behaviorconcentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven byfundamentals or by non-fundamental factors(...)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005843733
A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010301738
We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates, and equity prices in the U.S. Their simultaneous changes enable us to distinguish between a systematic and "exogenous" response to monetary-policy news. And, those tail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030329
A long tradition in macro finance studies the joint dynamics of aggregate stock returns and dividends using vector autoregressions (VARs), imposing the cross-equation restrictions implied by the Campbell-Shiller (CS) identity to sharpen inference. We take a Bayesian perspective and develop...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819002
As stock market indexes are not tradeable, the importance and trading volume of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) cannot be understated. ETFs track and attempt to replicate the performance of a specific index. Numerous studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the S&P500 Composite Index...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012611071
This paper proposes an equilibrium relationship between expected exchange rate changes and differentials in expected returns on risky assets. We show that when expected returns on a risky asset in a certain economy are higher than the returns that are expected from investing in a risky asset in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604858
In this paper we investigate whether the currency risk is priced in international stock markets. We suggest a parsimonious version of the international capital asset pricing model with an EGARCH-M(1,1) specification of the second moments' dynamics of stock and currency returns, assuming that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284112
The aim of this paper is to consider multivariate stochastic volatility models for large dimensional datasets. We suggest use of the principal component methodology of Stock and Watson (2002) for the stochastic volatility factor model discussed by Harvey, Ruiz, and Shephard (1994). The method is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010289033
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001617689
This paper studies evolving macroeconomic consequences of adverse credit spread shocks for the US economy over the past century. The key objective is to characterize and quantify how the credit transmission mechanism has changed in shaping the macroeconomy during major macroeconomic episodes. I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013022619