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This paper investigates the role that exchange rate changes can play in rebalancing transpacific trade. It presents evidence from a gravity model indicating that the exports from the People's Republic of China (PRC) to the United States (US) are a key outlier in the global economy and that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008732314
We study international business cycles and capital flows in the UK, the United States and the Emerging Periphery in the period 1885-1939. Based on the same set of parameters, our model explains current account dynamics under both the Classical Gold Standard and during the Interwar period. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316919
Long- and short-run current account balance (CAB) determinants of the nineteen Eurozone (EZ) member states vis-a-vis the United States (US) are examined. Particularly, the competitiveness of the EZ vs the US, the relationship between the current account deficit and the budget deficit (twin...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551775
We use a quantitative equilibrium model with houses, collateralized debt, and foreign borrowing to study the impact of global imbalances on the U.S. economy in the 2000s. Our results suggest that the dynamics of foreign capital flows account for between one-fourth and one-third of the increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333616
This paper examines the international transmission effects that a positive supply shock in emerging economies may have on inflation in developed economies. We construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for three countries and analyze the impact of a supply shock in an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397229
In an analytically tractable model of the global economy, we calculate the Pareto improvement where a country experiencing a favourable supply side shock consumes more against expected future output and spreads the risk by selling shares. With capital inflows to finance the ‘New Economy’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604505
The influential work of Obstfeld and Rogoff argues that a closing-up of the US current account deficit involves a large exchange rate adjustment. However, the Obstfeld-Rogoff model works exclusively via demand-side channels and abstracts from possible supply-side changes. We extend the framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604807
In the canonical monetary policy model, money is endogenous to the optimal path for interest rates and output. But when liquidity provision by banks dominates the demand for transactions money from the real economy, money is likely to contain information for future output and inflation because...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277853
This paper investigates the role that exchange rate changes can play in rebalancing transpacific trade. It presents evidence from a gravity model indicating that the exports from the People's Republic of China (PRC) to the United States (US) are a key outlier in the global economy and that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010279818
A narrowing of the U.S. current account deficit through exchange rate movements is likely to entail a substantial depreciation of the dollar, as stressed in research by Obstfeld and Rogoff. We assess how the adjustment is affected by the high degree of financial integration in the world economy....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283335