Using firm-level data for approximately 1,000 bank and nonbank financial institutions in 22 countries over the past 15 years we study the impact of prolonged monetary policy easing on risk-taking behavior. We find that the leverage ratio, as well as other measures of firm-level vulnerability,...

This paper proposes the use of forecast combination to improve predictive accuracy in forecasting the U.S. business cycle index as published by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER. It focuses on one-step ahead out-of-sample monthly forecast utilising the well-established coincident...

This paper presents a baseline model that illustrates the implications of Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) for excluded nations. The model shows that MRAs can harm third country exports because of a trade-diversion effect. We use highly disaggregated trade data from developed and developing...