redistributive gains from progressive taxation. …

Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been … almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume … expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense …

expectations about terrorism, and study the effects these last have on households' portfolio choices and spending patterns. We find …

We use novel survey data to estimate how personal experiences affect household expectations about aggregate economic … systematically extrapolate from recent locally experienced home prices when asked for their expectations about US house price changes … distribution over expected future national house price movements. We find similar results for labor market expectations, where we …

that forecasters' reported use of and estimates of u* are informative about their expectations-formation process, including … their use of a Phillips curve. Those who report not using u* have higher and less anchored inflation expectations, and seem …

This study applies the concept of pattern-based inflation expectations to the measurement of U.S. real rates of … interest. The measure of expected inflation builds on a laboratory-based survey of expectations. We show how our measures of … real interest rates differ from measures based on the Michigan survey of inflation expectations. In econometric estimates …