Showing 1 - 10 of 5,966
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431370
Measuring and modeling financial volatility is the key to derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management … ; realized betas ; volatility modeling … the daily or lower frequency volatility can be obtained by summing over squared high-frequency returns.In turn, this so …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003727640
Heteroscedasticity) volatility dynamics. DCS models are robust to extreme observations, whereas standard financial time series models are … observations, stochastic seasonality with dynamic amplitude, and volatility dynamics. These seasonality dynamics of the GTQ/USD are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012033379
market information can be used to improve realized volatility forecasts in a large cross-section of international equity … markets. We use volatility data for the U.S. and 17 foreign equity markets from the Oxford Man Institute's realized library … and augment for each foreign equity market our benchmark HAR model with U.S. equity market volatility information. We show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998925
aggregate U.S. stock market on: 1) the volatility predictions of asymmetric time series models, 2) implied volatility, and 3 …) realized volatility. Both asymmetric time series models and implied volatility predict an increase in volatility following … large negative surprise returns and ex post realized volatility normally rises as predicted. However, while asymmetric time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159746
In this paper, we review econometric methodology that is used to test for jumps and to decompose realized volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915430
We propose a nonparametric method to test which characteristics provide independent information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619632
We find, unlike earlier studies, that there is no rise in the market betas of stocks that enter the S&P 500 index when the estimated factor model is that of Fama and French (1993). We also find that SMB and HML factor betas decline after the stocks are added to the index. This decline is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008935723
using volatility impulse response analysis. The data set features ten years of daily returns series for the New York Stock … independent shocks on volatility through time, while avoiding typical orthogonalization and ordering problems. Volatility impulse … response functions (VIRF) provide information about the impact of independent shocks on volatility. HHś VIRF extends a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301206
The appropriate design of monetary policy in integrated financial markets is one of the most challenging areas for central banks. One hot topic is whether the rise in liquidity in recent years has contributed to the formation of price bubbles in asset markets. If strong linkages exist, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291772