This paper evaluates the predictive out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty …. The core contention is that economic uncertainty improves both forecast accuracy as well as direction-of-change forecasts … an increased relevance of certain economic uncertainty measures for forecasting growth in both real aggregate as well as …

results which suggest that prepayment risk dominates default risk in all except very low growth housing markets. Adds that … markets (due to decline in prepayment risk), but have little impact on high growth/high volatility markets (because they are …