duration dependence in unemployment benefits in a random on the job search model featuring two-sided heterogeneity. The model … on the job is the most important driver behind this result. Meanwhile, firm heterogeneity never accounts for more than 20 …

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US … FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the best and worstperformers across the sample. This heterogeneity is … anticipating important events such as monetary policy decisions. Moreover, the paper shows that such heterogeneity is economically …