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Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?
Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 2 (2011) 3, pp. 419-453
How much does real gross domestic product (GDP) respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored oil price vector autore- gressive models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unex- pected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011756396
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Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle : accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework
Thiem, Christopher - 2017
This paper reinvestigates the influence of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity in the U.S. using a four-variable VAR, GARCH-in-mean, asymmetric BEKK model. In contrast to previous studies in this area, the analysis focuses on business cycle fluctuations and we control for global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011608019
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How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?
Geiger, Martin; Güntner, Jochen - 2019
We investigate how oil supply shocks are transmitted to U.S. economic activity, consumer prices, and interest rates. Using a structural VAR approach with a combination of sign and zero restrictions, we distinguish between supply and demand channels in the transmission of exogenous changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009877
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Commodity price shocks and the business cycle : structural evidence for the US
Gubler, Matthias; Hertweck, Matthias S. - 2011 - This version: March 28, 2011
This paper develops a 9-dimensional SVAR to investigate the sources of the U.S. business cycle. We extend the standard set of identified shocks to include unexpected changes in commodity prices. Our main result is that commodity price shocks are a very important driving force of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009008065
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The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy
Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2017
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970152
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The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy
Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2016
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998782
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A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market
Valenti, Daniele; Bastianin, Andrea; Manera, Matteo - 2022
We present a weekly structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of the US crude oil market. Exploiting weekly data we can explain short-run crude oil price dynamics, including those related with the COVID-19 pandemic and with the Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The model is set identified with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013254444
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Structural vector autoregressions with smooth transition in variances : the interaction between US monetary policy and the stock market
Lütkepohl, Helmut; NetŠunajev, Aleksei - 2014
In structural vector autoregressive analysis identifying the shocks of interest via heteroskedasticity has become a … standard tool. Unfortunately, the approaches currently used for modelling heteroskedasticity all have drawbacks. For instance … used conventional identification schemes in this context are rejected by the data if heteroskedasticity is allowed for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010361372
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Structural vector autoregressions with smooth transition in variances : the interaction between US monetary policy and the stock market
Lütkepohl, Helmut; Netšunajev, Aleksei - 2014
In structural vector autoregressive analysis identifying the shocks of interest via heteroskedasticity has become a … standard tool. Unfortunately, the approaches currently used for modelling heteroskedasticity all have drawbacks. For instance … used conventional identification schemes in this context are rejected by the data if heteroskedasticity is allowed for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010364697
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Uncertainty across volatility regimes
Angelini, Giovanni; Bacchiocchi, Emanuele; Caggiano, … - 2017
We propose a new non-recursive identification scheme for uncertainty shocks, which exploits breaks in the unconditional volatility of macroeconomic variables. Such identification approach allows us to simultaneously address two major questions in the empirical literature on uncertainty: (i) Does...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011778668