The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast …, including the question of whether financial market information helps forecast the real price of oil in physical markets. An … and statistically significant real-time improvements in forecast accuracy. The preferred MIDAS model reduces the MSPE by …

the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of … greater reductions in MSPEs are possible by constructing a pooled forecast that assigns equal weight to five of the most …

There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive … 2008 recession could have been forecast using the latter class of time-varying threshold models …

There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive … 2008 recession could have been forecast using the latter class of time-varying threshold models …

-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …

This paper, in the form of a treatise, estimates a U.S. shale-oil production trend forecast and explores potential … consequences of that trend on U.S. and World macroeconomic conditions and growth prospects. It explains the economics of the …