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As the debt ceiling episode unfolds, we highlight a sharp increase in activity across the U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) market and infer the likelihood of a U.S. default from these market prices. Beginning in January 2023, we document a significant increase in U.S. CDS trading activity and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014249852
As the debt ceiling episode unfolds, we highlight a sharp increase in trading activity and liquidity in the U.S. credit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355266
We document the sharp increase in trading activity, gross and net notional outstanding, and overall premiums in the U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) market that took place during the 2023 debt ceiling episode. Unlike the periods leading up to the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling events, we show that in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350983
This paper explains the emergence of liquidity traps in the aftermath of large-scale financial crises, as happened in … long time. -- liquidity trap ; financial crisis ; rare disasters ; equity capital ; leverage ; bankruptcy risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009535806
This paper shows that funding liquidity risk is priced in the cross-section of excess returns on agency mortgage …-backed securities (MBS). We derive a measure of funding liquidity risk from dollar-roll implied financing rates (IFRs), which reflect … liquidity shocks embedded in the IFRs is compensated in the cross-section of expected excess returns| agency MBS that are better …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011500433
The issuing policy of the U.S. Treasury allows us to unambiguously isolate maturity-dependent liquidity premia in the … Treasury market. We determine and analyze three term structures of liquidity premia obtained from observed yields of coupon …. Considering liquidity premia between coupon STRIPS and Treasury notes, we surprisingly find that short-term coupon STRIPS are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133482
convenience yield for safety and liquidity and by lower global economic growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030041
convenience yield for safety and liquidity and by lower global economic growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011904671
significant changes in U.S. money market liquidity. We develop a model in which U.S. money market spreads respond to foreign … central banks’ exchange-rate management decisions. Foreign central banks remove liquidity from U.S. money markets and cause … spreads to widen by selling Treasuries to supply liquidity to their financial systems. Our analysis focuses on the major oil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013492068
This paper studies a nonlinear one-factor term structure model in discrete time. The single factor is the short-term interest rate, which is modeled as a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) process. Our specification allows for shifts in the intercept and the variance. The process is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295839