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-market volatility as measured by the VIX. We propose a new estimator for the shape of the nonlinear forecasting relationship that …, revealing flight to safety: Expected returns increase for stocks when volatility increases from moderate to high levels, while …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010505953
This paper examines mean and volatility spillovers between four green municipal bonds issued by the US states of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014234020
to intermediate bond markets, as in March 2020. Although yield volatility explains most of the variation in Treasury … than predicted by yield volatility alone. This is consistent with the existence of occasionally binding constraints on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014393396
) unite liquidity and volatility in one framework through which their joint dynamics can be examined. Liquidity and volatility … crisis, accompanied by increased price volatility, but that trading activity seems unaffected until after the Lehman Brothers … bankruptcy. Our models' key finding is that price volatility and depth at the best bid and ask prices exhibit a negative feedback …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009679504
daily data on realized volatility and trading volume, we show that the investors in the US Treasury bond futures market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027232
We find that consumption risk is lower in states that implement counter-cyclical fiscal policies. Moreover, firms whose … headquarters to a counter-cyclical state. Therefore, counter-cyclical fiscal policies lower the consumption risk of investors and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013008239
housing crash from 2006 to 2011 and its implications for aggregate and cross-sectional consumption during the Great Recession … consumption. Balance sheets act as a transmission mechanism from housing to consumption that depends on gross portfolio positions … and the leverage distribution. Low interest rate policies accelerate the recovery in housing and consumption …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011782612
We estimate time-varying expected excess returns on the US stock market from 1983 to 2008 using a model that jointly captures the arbitrage-free dynamics of stock returns and nominal bond yields. The model nests the class of affine term structure (of interest rates) models. Stock returns and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832616
We provide a critical assessment of the method used by the Cleveland Fed to correct expected inflation derived from index-linked bonds for liquidity and inflation risk premia and show how their method can be adapted to account for time-varying inflation risk premia. Furthermore, we show how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951555
US government indebtedness and fiscal deficits increased notably following the global financial crisis. Yet long-term interest rates and US Treasury yields have remained remarkably low. Why have long-term interest rates stayed low despite the elevated government indebtedness? What are the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011453037