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Does Mixed Frequency Vector Error Correction Model Add Relevant Information to Exchange Misalignment Calculus? Evidence for United States
Marçal, Emerson Fernandes - 2014
Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and affects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investments flows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045526
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Point, interval and density forecasts of exchange rates with time-varying parameter models
Abbate, Angela; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2016
We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489395
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The U.S. Factor in Explaining and Forecasting Bilateral U.S. Exchange Rates
Ponomareva, Natalia - 2015
We identify a U.S.-driven factor using a monthly panel of fifteen bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar since 1999. We find this factor is closely related to nominal and real macroeconomic variables, as well as financial market variables from the U.S. Using this factor alone, we show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025604
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Global Equity Market Volatility Spillovers : A Broader Role for the United States
Buncic, Daniel - 2016
Rapach et al. (2013) have recently shown that U.S. equity market returns carry valuable information to improve return forecasts in global equity markets. In this study, we extend the work of Rapach et al. (2013) and examine if U.S. based equity market information can be used to improve realized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998925
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The undisclosed renminbi basket: are the markets telling us something about where the renminbi - US dollar exchange rate is going?
Funke, Michael; Gronwald, Marc - 2008
On 21 July 2005 China adopted an undisclosed basket exchange rate regime. We formally assess and envisage the gradual evolution of the renminbi over time. We utilize nonlinear dependencies in the renminbi exchange rate and describe the smooth transition of the renminbi/U.S. dollar (RMB/USD)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264340
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The forward premium puzzle and latent factors day by day
Bernoth, Kerstin; von Hagen, Jürgen; de Vries, Casper G. - 2010
We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274182
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The Euro/Dollar exchange rate: Chaotic or non-chaotic?
Federici, Daniela; Gandolfo, Giancarlo - 2011
The aim of this paper is to develop a continuous time exchange rate model that allows for heterogeneity of the agents' beliefs, in order to explore non-linearities and possible chaotic behaviour. The theoretical model contains an intrinsic non-linearity that gives rise to a jerk differential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274880
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The forward premium puzzle and latent factors day by day
Bernoth, Kerstin; Hagen, Jürgen von; Vries, Casper G. de - 2010
We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003949496
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The Euro/Dollar exchange rate : chaotic or non-chaotic?
Federici, Daniela; Gandolfo, Giancarlo - 2011
The aim of this paper is to develop a continuous time exchange rate model that allows for heterogeneity of the agents' beliefs, in order to explore non-linearities and possible chaotic behaviour. The theoretical model contains an intrinsic non-linearity that gives rise to a jerk differential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011774
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Equilibrium real effective exchange rates and real exchange rate misalignments : time series vs. panel estimates
Hossfeld, Oliver - 2010
effective exchange rates and currency misalignments for the US and its 16 major trading partners. We apply cointegration and … panel cointegration techniques to derive fully countryspecific measures of misalignment and measures based on panel … cointegration tests by Westerlund (2007), as well as different estimators. While we find strong evidence for the Balassa …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374380