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,b,c) to examine the importance of jumps, and in particular large and small jumps, using high frequency price returns on 25 … stocks in the DOW 30 and S&P futures index. In particular, we examine jumps from both the perspective of their contribution … of jumps in around 22.8% of the days during the 1993-2000 period, and in 9.4% of the days during the 2001-2008 period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282828
Measuring and modeling financial volatility is the key to derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management.The recent availability of high-frequency data allows for refined methods in this field.In particular, more precise measures for the daily or lower frequency volatility can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274148
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014288917
Estimation of GARCH models can be simplified by augmenting quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation with variance targeting, which reduces the degree of parameterization and facilitates estimation. We compare the two approaches and investigate, via simulations, how non-normality features of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410634
subject to revisions. This makes them an excellent source of information for the macroeconomic forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274377
when it comes to long-term forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422246
We propose a new measure of the expected variance risk premium that is based on a forecast of the conditional variance from a GARCH-MIDAS model. We find that the new measure has strong predictive ability for future U.S. aggregate stock market returns and rationalize this result by showing that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484829
augments the prediction problem by covariate forecasting models. In this paper, we present simple alternatives for multi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008939079
when it comes to long-term forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009656267
this end, we use high-frequency 1-min data to compute daily realized measures of correlation and jumps, and then, we employ … this type of uncertainty on realized stock-bond correlation and jumps. Our findings reveal that uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012504028