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Renditeverteilung existieren und sich überwiegend auch ein Leverage-Effekt identifizieren lässt. Durch eine ARMA-GARCH …
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variables, interest rates, and inflation rate on two Islamic stock market indices. Using time series analysis such as GARCH the …
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In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension...
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Volatility (SV) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models which are both extended to include … outperforms the GARCH model. …
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GARCH model. The GDFM, applied to a large number of series, captures the multivariate information and disentangles the … a GARCH.We compare GDFM+GARCH and standard GARCH performance on two samples up to 171 series, providing one …-step-ahead volatility predictions of returns. The GDFM+GARCH model outperforms the standard GARCH in most cases. These results are robust …
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Bayesian inference in a time series model provides exact, out-of-sample predictive distributions that fully and coherently incorporate parameter uncertainty. This study compares and evaluates Bayesian predictive distributions from alternative models, using as an illustration five alternative...
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equity premium. In addition, the model predicts: (v) the GARCH property of risky asset returns; (vi) the Forward Discount …
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