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Using recently developed modelling methodology of Economic Tracking Portfolios (ETP), we find that it is possible to forecast future values of inflation and changes in industrial production in the United States and at least three core euro countries – Italy, France and Germany – utilising...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005648907
In this paper we investigate the contagion effect between stock markets of U.S and sixteen OECD countries due to Global …-2009). In order to recognize the contagion effect, we test whether the mean of the DCC coefficients in crisis period differs … OECD stock markets under study during the crisis period for most of the countries. This proves the existence of contagion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010304806
The recent crisis highlighted the importance of globally active banks in linking markets. One channel for this linkage is the liquidity management of these banks, specifically the regular flow of funds between parent banks and their affiliates in diverse foreign markets. We use the Great...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287134
This paper employs an Extreme Value Theory framework to investigate the existence of contagion between European and US … finding market-based indicators in order to analyze the effects of crises and to quantify the risk of contagion. The Distance … coexceedances allows to interpret significant coefficients of foreign lagged coexceedances as contagion. The main finding is that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274429
financial sector and factors that explain why these strains lead to system-wide contagion and a possible credit crunch. Most of … that a financial crisis with its contagion within the system is caused by failures of legal, regulatory and political … crises would be reduced if appropriate institutions could be put in place Lacking appropriate institutions to avoid contagion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320249
Given the prospects of asynchronous monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area, this paper analyzes spillovers among these two economies, as well as the implications of asynchronicity for spillovers to other advanced economies and emerging markets. Through a structural vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011192
This working paper evaluates the economic sources of the stock market responses of 40 countries to surprises in the fed funds rate (FFR), the Fed's forward guidance (FG) and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP). We decompose stock market returns into different components reflecting investors'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012520011
Using local projection and event studies, I investigate the non-linear effects of US monetary policy shocks on financial asset prices in five advanced economies–Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Korea, and the United Kingdom–from 1990 to 2014. The international asset prices show evidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863735
We study the nature of systemic sovereign credit risk using CDS spreads for the U.S. Treasury, individual U.S. states, and major European countries. Using a multifactor affine framework that allows for both systemic and sovereign-specific credit shocks, we find that there is considerable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126657
This study empirically examines the spillover effect from US monetary policy to nineteen European economies using Markov-switching models. The results of the univariate Markov-switching models validate the presence of two distinct regimes for both US monetary policy and the stock markets. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012025335