We use novel survey data to estimate how personal experiences affect household expectations about aggregate economic … systematically extrapolate from recent locally experienced home prices when asked for their expectations about US house price changes … distribution over expected future national house price movements. We find similar results for labor market expectations, where we …

dynamics considerably differ between gain and loss domains. For gains, learning to be comparably ambiguity averse increases the …

. I show that a benchmark rational expectations general equilibrium asset pricing model is inconsistent with these facts …

minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on … learning from experience that also allows for heterogeneity in both private information and updating. Our model vastly … outperforms existing models of inflation expectations in explaining the heterogeneity in the data. We find that women, ethnic …

The literature on learning in unknown environments emphasises reinforcing on actions which produce positive results …

the nature of the task at the second date further shows that learning is unencumbered by a change in environment. Our …

feature of the model is that learning operates in both the demand for assets and the supply of credit. Interactions between … propagation. In contrast, the paper shows why learning involving only one side on the market, which has been the focus of most of …

feature of the model is that learning operates in both the demand for assets and the supply of credit. Interactions between … propagation. In contrast, the paper shows why learning involving only one side on the market, which has been the focus of most of …