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Stock price booms and expected capital gains
Adam, Klaus; Beutel, Johannes; Marcet, Albert - 2014
The booms and busts in U.S. stock prices over the post-war period can to a large extent be explained by fluctuations in investors' subjective capital gains expectations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism at market peaks and excessive pessimism at market throughs....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490485
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Explaining the Boom-Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market : A Reverse-Engineering Approach
Gelain, Paolo - 2018
We use a simple quantitative asset pricing model to "reverse-engineer" the sequences of stochastic shocks to housing demand and lending standards that are needed to exactly replicate the boom-bust patterns in U.S. household real estate value and mortgage debt over the period 1995 to 2012....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937131
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Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods
Taipalus, Katja - 2012
conventional unit root tests in modified forms can be used to construct early warning indicators for bubbles in financial markets … 1871, they are able to signal most of the consensus bubbles, defined as stock market booms for example by the IMF, and they … bubbles from the data. Finally, these early warning indicators are applied to data for several housing markets. In most of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012148911
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On the neutrality of credit-driven asset bubbles
Reicher, Christopher Phillip - 2011
This paper proposes and tests a theory of credit-driven asset bubbles which are neutral in their real effects. When a … asset bubbles can form which exactly offset a bubble in household liabilities. Surprisingly, evidence from a VAR using long …-run restrictions supports the idea that asset bubbles are approximately neutral in their real effects before 2007. The evidence becomes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008904609
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Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices
Boswijk, Peter; Hommes, Cars H.; Manzan, Sebastiano - 2005
We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325397
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Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility
Kurz, Mordecai; Motolese, Maurizio - 1999
Endogenous Uncertainty is that component of economic risk and market volatility which is propagated within the economy by the beliefs and actions of agents. The theory of Rational Belief (see Kurz [1994]) permits rational agents to hold diverse beliefs and consequently, a Rational Belief...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011608491
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Mental models of the stock market
Andre, Peter; Schirmer, Philipp; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2024
Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551624
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Mental models of the stock market
Andre, Peter; Schirmer, Philipp; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023
Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014475810
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Social networks and housing markets
Bailey, Michael; Cao, Ruiqing; Kuchler, Theresa; … - 2016
The recent house price experiences within an individual's social network affect her perceptions of the attractiveness of property investments, and through this channel have large effects on her housing market activity. Our data combine anonymized social network information from Facebook with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476018
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A Comparison of Anti-Manipulation Rules in U.S. and EU Electricity and Natural Gas Markets : A Proposal for a Common Standard
Ledgerwood, Shaun D. - 2013
In this paper, we describe the development and current status of anti-manipulation rules as they apply to wholesale electricity and natural gas markets in the United States and the European Union, including the institutions that are responsible for overseeing these rules. We then compare and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091121