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Previous macro-finance term structure models (MTSMs) imply that macroeconomic state variables are spanned by (i.e., perfectly correlated with) model-implied bond yields. However, this theoretical implication appears inconsistent with regressions showing that much macroeconomic variation is...
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"We investigate whether bonds span the volatility risk in the U.S. Treasury market, as predicted by most 'affine' term structure models. To this end, we construct powerful and model-free empirical measures of the quadratic yield variation for a cross-section of fixed- maturity zero-coupon bonds...
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essentially affine term structure models, as well as the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. In total eleven model variants are evaluated …-of-sample performance is generated by three-factor affine models and the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model variants. However, statistical tests … fail to identify one single-best forecasting model class. - Nelson-Siegel model ; affine term structure models ; quadratic …
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This paper discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of "macro-finance" models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a no-arbitrage framework. I classify macro-finance models into pure latent-factor models ("internal...
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