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yield curve where the informational advantage exists and transmits the superior forecasting ability to all remaining yields … are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010190487
factors. We illustrate the methodology by forecasting the U.S. term structure of interest rates. For this empirical study we … the yield and macroeconomic factors. Finally, we perform an extensive out-of-sample forecasting study. Our main conclusion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386428
factors. We illustrate the methodology by forecasting the U.S. term structure of interest rates. For this empirical study we … the yield and macroeconomic factors. Finally, we perform an extensive out-of-sample forecasting study. Our main conclusion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013068300
excess returns we observe that the slope and cur- vature yield factors contain the same explanatory power as the return-forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770770
In the present paper we analyse whether fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the recent decline in bond yields in the US. For that purpose, we start with a very general model of interest rate determination in which risk premia are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012002995
-of-fit and clearly reduces the forecasting uncertainty particularly in low-volatility periods. The proposed approach is shown to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003952795
We propose a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model where the underlying yield factors follow autoregressive processes with stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities parsimoniously capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003864095
Overnight Federal funds and overnight Eurodollars are among the most liquid short-term assets that a bank can hold to acquire required reserves. They are traded overnight and denominated in U.S. dollars. They also have different characteristics: The Fed funds market and the Eurodollar market are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010504317
The popular Nelson-Siegel (1987) yield curve is routinely fit to cross sections of intra-country bond yields, and Diebold and Li (2006) have recently proposed a dynamized version. In this paper we extend Diebold-Li to a global context, modeling a potentially large set of country yield curves in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831205
particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that hitherto existing forecasting methods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770767