This paper uses a large language model to develop an ex-ante measure of the commercial potential of scientific findings. In addition to validating the measure against the typical holdout sample, we validate it externally against 1.) the progression of scientific findings through a major...

In industries characterized by network externalities, the self-reinforcing effects of installed base and the availability of complementary goods can lead to a single (or few) firm(s) controlling nearly all of the market share in a product category. A new entrant may attempt to displace the...