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real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail …
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This paper uses data from 1960-2015 to evaluate the predictive content of financial variables and unconventional monetary policy measures for the U.S. output growth and inflation before, during, and after the Great Recession. During the Great Recession, this work shows that the predictive...
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importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, we decompose the fall in …
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importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, we decompose the fall in …
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