We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...

Exchange rates as well as relative price level and output movements are decomposed into components associated with nominal shocks as well as shocks to aggregate supply and aggregate demand. In contrast to previous analyses of such decompositions based on statistical vector autoregression (VAR)...

Im Gegensatz zur Volatilität wurde der Korrelation in der Forschung bisher viel weniger Beachtung geschenkt, obwohl die Korrelation in der Finanzwissenschaft eine zentrale Rolle spielt. Die vorliegende Doktorarbeit ergänzt die bestehende Literatur, indem sie verschiedene Aspekte der...