accounts for time variation in macroeconomic volatility, known as the great moderation. In particular, we consider an … volatility processes and mixture distributions for the irregular components and the common cycle disturbances enable us to … that time-varying volatility is only present in the a selection of idiosyncratic components while the coefficients driving …

develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its … shock has remained fairly stable. Simulations from a non-linear DSGE model suggest that these empirical results are …