. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

MDS approach. In a forecasting exercise the MDS model compares favorably to the Bernoulli model for one quarter and one … year ahead inflation. In addition, it turns out that the performance of MDS model forecasting is competitive in comparison … with other models found to be useful in the inflation forecasting literature. …

particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that hitherto existing forecasting methods …

in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that existing forecasting methods …

particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that hitherto existing forecasting methods …

in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that existing forecasting methods …

develop a model for inflation forecasting that is nonparametric both in the conditional mean and in the error using Gaussian … of inflation. In a forecasting exercise involving CPI inflation, we find that our approach has substantial benefits, both …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …