. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that hitherto existing forecasting methods …

in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that existing forecasting methods …

particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that hitherto existing forecasting methods …

in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that existing forecasting methods …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …

investment strategy including transaction costs. Another empirical example refers to forecasting US economic growth over the … business cycle. It suggests that time varying combination schemes may be very useful in business cycle analysis and forecasting …