This paper uses district-level data to highlight similarities and differences of a variety of U.S. congressional election models ranging from predictive statistical learning models to causal structural models and new causal statistical models. First, several statistical learning models are...

Demographic change belongs to the mega-trends of the 20th and the 21st century. The ongoing aging process in major industrialized countries gives rise to the relative scarcity of raw labor and the relative abundance of physical capital. Standard macroeconomic models suggest that this depresses...