The Phillips curve, which posits a relationship between inflation and domestic economic activity, introduces a crucial … evidence that forecasts of U.S. inflation from Phillips curve-based models tend to underperform relative to naïve forecasts. We … aspects of the Great Moderation have improved the forecast accuracy of open-economy models. …

We analyze real-time forecasts of US inflation over 1999Q3-2019Q4 and subsamples, investigating whether and how … forecast accuracy and robustness can be improved with additional information such as expert judgment, additional macroeconomic … variables, and forecast combination. The forecasts include those from the Federal Reserve Board's Tealbook, the Survey of …

This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity … futures prices for U.S. core inflation. The proposed aggregator reduces the out-of-sample root mean squared error for 12-month …-ahead inflation forecasts of the benchmark AR(1) model by 28 percent (20 percent) for the PCE (CPI) measure of core inflation. To …