We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U … jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a similar … particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that hitherto existing forecasting methods …

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables, using the example of age-specific mortality in the … their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a … in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that existing forecasting methods …