The resurgence of the pandemic and renewed lockdowns have slowed the recovery of the global economy, but the overall losses will be less severe than after the first coronavirus wave in spring 2020. Industry in particular continues to develop well. In contrast, retail trade and personal services...

I examine whether or not returns on stock markets are a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments in Austria, Japan and the USA. Further I deal with the concept of stock market efficiency, the question whether or not information from real and financial sectors of the economy is...

In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic...

I examine whether or not returns on stock markets are a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments in Austria, Japan and the USA. Further I deal with the concept of stock market efficiency, the question whether or not information from real and financial sectors of the economy is...

We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver...

This study draws on machine learning as a means to causal inference for econometric investigation. We utilize the concept of transfer entropy to examine the relationship between the US National Association of Home Builders Index and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Composite Home Price...