amount of support within sample, it appears to be of more limited importance from a forecasting perspective. …

-of-fit and clearly reduces the forecasting uncertainty particularly in low-volatility periods. The proposed approach is shown to …

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …