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The trend towards activation has been one of the major issues in recent welfare and labour market reforms in Europe and … activation, redefining the link between social protection and labour market policies on the one hand and employment on the other … has been a common issue in labour market reforms. The paper shows the development of activation policies in terms of basic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269141
A frequent challenge when using graphical models in applications is that the sample size is limited relative to the number of parameters to be learned. Our motivation stems from applications where one has external data, in the form of networks between variables, that provides valuable...
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We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence in four OECDcountries byestimating a structural Bayesian VAR with an informative priorbased on an insiders/outsiders model. We explicitly insert unemployment ben-efits and labour taxes so that our identification is not affected by the Faust...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324805
We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and Canada for data from the 1960s up to the present. Our...
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This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003728591
Exchange rates have raised the ire of economists for more than 20 years. The problem is that few, if any, exchange rate models are known to systematically beat a naive random walk in out of sample forecasts. Engel and West (2005) show that these failures can be explained by the standard-present...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003732186
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