Using responses obtained through the Nielsen Homescan panel survey, we explore the differences between managers’ and non-managers’ expectations and perceptions of inflation and unemployment. By and large, managers and non-managers exhibit similar average inflation and unemployment...

Introducing a new survey of U.S. firms' inflation expectations, we document key stylized facts involving what U.S. firms know and expect about inflation and monetary policy. The resulting time series of firms' inflation expectations displays unique dynamics, distinct from those of households and...

Economists and policymakers believe that households’ and firms’ expectations of future inflation are key determinants of actual inflation. This paper applies the ARDL model and nonlinear ARDL model to long-term inflation-targeting policy mechanisms in the United States and China to assess...

This paper assesses the proximate causes of the post pandemic surge in US inflation, the Federal Reserve's real time reaction to and interpretation of incoming data in 2021, and the pivot to raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet that commenced in 2022 and continues in 2023. Particular...

This paper quantifies the deterioration of achievable stabilization outcomes when monetary policy operates under imperfect credibility and weak anchoring of long-term expectations. Within a medium-scale DSGE model, we introduce through a simple signal extraction problem, an imperfect knowledge...

We review recent research and experiences linking inflation and expectations, emphasizing what has been learned since 2020. One clear lesson is that the inflation expectations of most economic agents have been and remain unanchored. The unanchored nature of inflation expectations, in combination...