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The effect of the great moderation on the US business cycle in a time-varying multivariate trend-cycle model
Creal, Drew; Koopman, Siem Jan; Zivot, Eric - 2008
In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640
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GDP solera : the ideal vintage mix
Almuzara, Martín; Amengual, Dante; Fiorentini, Gabriele; … - 2022
cointegration between the different measures and taking their monthly release calendar seriously. We also combine all existing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013336360
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Is there a national housing market bubble brewing in the United States?
Gupta, Rangan; Ma, Jun; Theodoridis, Konstantinos; … - 2020
We use a time-varying parameter dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV) estimated using Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in FHFA house price movements from state-specific shocks, over the quarterly period of 1975Q2 to 2017Q4. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012229804
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The natural rate of interest and the financial cycle
Krustev, Georgi - 2018
estimation of the natural rates of interest, unemployment and output, and the sustainable growth rate of the US economy. By …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011871950
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Time series analysis of the US term structure of interest rates using a Bayesian Markov switching cointegration model
Sugita, Katsuhiro - In: International journal of economics and finance 9 (2017) 3, pp. 49-56
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011642177
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The impacts of global risk and US monetary policy on US Dollar exchange rates and excess currency returns
Bernoth, Kerstin; Herwartz, Helmut; Trienens, Lasse - 2023
We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014305726
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Non-Linearities and Persistence in US Long-Run Interest Rates
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; … - 2021
-August 2020, the other from the ECB reporting average monthly values over the period January 1900-August 2020. The estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314848
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The estimation uncertainty of permanent-transitory decompositions in cointegrated systems
Schreiber, Sven - 2011 - this version: February 2011
The topic of this paper is the estimation uncertainty of the Stock-Watsonand Gonzalo-Granger permanent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009530402
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On the construction of two-country cointegrated VAR models with an application to the UK and US
Heinlein, Reinhold; Krolzig, Hans-Martin - 2012
the approach by Aoki (1981) frequently used in economic theory. Aoki showed that for a system of linear differential …. Symmetry is rejected for the short-run, thus for the given cointegration vectors the final modelling stage is based on the full …, where the VAR based cointegration analysis is combined with a graph-theoretic search for instantaneous causal relations and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009672516
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Stock market investment and inflation : evidence from the United States and Canada
Sami, Janesh - In: Review of Economic Analysis : REA 13 (2021) 3, pp. 339-365
distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration test developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001), and finds evidence of a positive long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886334