This paper investigates the international business cycle with new sector level data on hours and output for Canada, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1992 Q1 to 2011 Q3. We estimate a Bayesian dynamic common factor model on this disaggregate data to decompose...

Over the course of 2018, economic activity in major advanced foreign economies and emerging markets—including the Euro area and China—decelerated noticeably. In parallel, foreign growth projections for 2019 and 2020 were revised down, signaling potentially large headwinds for the U.S economy...

We study how credit supply shocks in the US, the euro area and Japan are transmitted to other economies. We use the recently-developed GVAR approach to model financial variables jointly with macroeconomic variables in 33 countries for the period 1983-2009. We experiment with inter-country links...

We study international business cycles and capital flows in the UK, the United States and the Emerging Periphery in the period 1885-1939. Based on the same set of parameters, our model explains current account dynamics under both the Classical Gold Standard and during the Interwar period. We...

The U.S. financial crisis of 2007-08 had detrimental and lasting effects on the economies of other nations, reinforcing the leading role played by the United States in the global economy. The authors assess this role by determining whether U.S. output growth informs business cycle turning points...

We analyze the effect of the geographic expansion of banks across U.S. states on the co-movement of economic activity between states. Exploiting the removal of interstate banking restrictions to construct time-varying instrumental variables at the state-pair level, we find that bilateral banking...